Lin Yifu: By 2049, China’s GDP will be twice that of the United States! | Blog

Many people are concerned about the dispute between China and the United States. who will win? Looking at the long-term view, China is well known.

Lin Yifu, former Vice President of the World Bank and Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, expressed confidence in China’s development and emphasized the need to do its own business and play a double course. It is expected that by 2049, China will be calculated based on the exchange rate. China’s per capita GDP would be half that of the US, but given that China’s population is four times that of the US, that means China’s economy is twice as large as the US.

Lin Yifu, Dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics, Peking University.

Why is there such a prediction? Professor Lin Yifu explained that the reason for this is that China’s current economic growth rate has made a quantum leap. From a technical perspective, as a developing country, China has used the advantages of the latecomers in technology innovation and modernization, which has greatly reduced the costs and risks of research and development in my country.

Lin Yifu pointed out at a forum that there are gaps in China’s internal economic levels between various cities. As China’s coastal cities have relatively high standards of living, it is believed that the per capita GDP of coastal areas in 2049 will be at the same level as The gap is also potential, which shows that these cities can develop rapidly. He also believes that China’s economic development model is a reference for other developing countries.

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Many financial institutions are very optimistic about China’s economic prospects this year. The World Bank expects China’s GDP growth rate in 2021 to reach 8.5%; Swiss company Baida forecasts a growth rate of 9.2%; Yuli Anyi forecasts a growth rate of 8.2%; The OECD forecasts a growth rate of 8.5%; and Goldman Sachs’ growth rate. Growth rate forecast has been raised to 8.5%.

He believes the novel coronavirus epidemic is a global pandemic, and China has responded well. The epidemic has widened the economic growth gap between China and the United States. He believes that China’s economic size will exceed that of the United States and there is a chance of progress to 2028 in 2030.

Regarding China’s GDP per capita is still low, Lin Yifu said that since China is still a developing country, it is normal for the standard of living to be relatively low, but more importantly, it depends on the “situation” of development. Currently, the per capita GDP of the mainland is much lower than that of the United States. In 2019, the per capita GDP of the United States was $65,000, while that of China was only $10,261, less than one-sixth of the United States.

From the perspective of economic data, the average annual GDP growth rate of developed countries is generally 3% to 3.5%, but since my country’s reform and opening up, the average GDP growth rate has remained at 9.2% for 42 consecutive years. Even under the impact of the epidemic, China can achieve positive growth and accelerate the pace of economic recovery. In 2020, my country’s GDP will exceed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 101.6 trillion yuan.

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China has also set a goal of doubling its national per capita income or GDP by 2035 in the next 15 years. Professor Lin Yifu pointed out that to achieve this goal, from this year to 2035, the national GDP growth rate must reach 4.7% each year during this period. According to the current economic growth rate of our country, this goal can be achieved by 2035.

Therefore, Professor Lin Yifu predicts that if my country can achieve the 8% GDP growth potential in the next 15 years as predicted by financial institutions, the average annual growth rate is expected to reach 6%. Then by 2025, my country will enter the ranks of high-income countries, and by 2030, it will reach the level of a fairly advanced country. By 2049, my country’s GDP per capita will reach $45,000, which is half the United States, and at the same time, my country’s GDP will be twice that of the United States.

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