From the moment the British voted for Brixi It was fashionable to say that their economy was headed for collapse, and that it could have collapsedEuropean Union To benefit from them more. For more than five years, one economist after another predicted the miserable and disastrous fate of an economy Great Britain.
The truth is that it was only in the years that followed that we knew the real impact of Brexit. However, this has not stopped economists from making increasingly speculative forecasts. We were told many times that the UK would collapse, catch fire, and return to the “sick man of Europe” as it was before it joined the European Community in 1973.
The most recent data on the volume of trade between the UK and the European Union gave more room for these comments: Indeed, in January, countless authors highlighted numbers indicating a breakdown in trade relations with the European Union.
Compared to previous years, the UK’s total exports to the Union have decreased by approximately 42%. However, what has not been highlighted is that the UK’s exports to the European Union have recovered dramatically since then, jumping by an amount 47% In February. While it is still slightly below last year’s levels, it is rapidly heading in the right direction.
What this data and others suggest – as noted analyst Wolfgang Munchhaw of Eurointelligence – is that not even the slightest fraction of the dreaded Brexit scenarios will materialize.
Many financial organizations agree, indicating that the British economy is on the way to collapse. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just projected the economic growth of Great Britain 5,3% In 2021, compared to 4.4% for the Eurozone and 3.6% for Germany. The UK is now likely to return to pre-Covid results before the Eurozone and may go further. Others have recently made growth forecasts for the UK as well – EY’s Item Club, JP Morgan, UBS, OECD and Deutsche Bank, to name a few.
Goldman Sachs just predicted that the British economy is on the verge of growth 7,8% This year alone, faster than the United States. If the numbers match, it would be the fastest growth rate in peacetime since 1870. EY’s Item Club claims it will rise about 7%, the fastest pace since 1941. UBS, Bank of America and Barclays have set their own forecasts, especially after the successful British vaccination campaign. – Passed the first real test since Brexit with flying colors.
This success was also of great economic importance, as a quick recovery from the Covid-19 It will obscure any short friction in the immediate post-Brexit period. In a year or two, and seeing 7% growth rates, it will be hard to convince Britons that Brexit has been an economic disaster.
Some argue that Brexit will harm the British economy in the long run. For example, some banks argue that, even with the dream of 2021, the real impact of Brexit will only emerge over a longer period of time, and it will lower Britain’s GDP in the coming years. 3,5% around.
But even if this scenario materializes, it must be interpreted along with two other factors. First, any economy’s performance is always relative. By assessing the costs and benefits of Brexit, the British are comparing their results to those of the eurozone, to distinguish those of a more prosperous North and those of an indebted south and an abandoned south.
Second, even if some Brexit-related stagnation does indeed occur in the long run, we must bear in mind that this will ultimately be secondary to the reasons that led citizens to vote in favor of Brexit.
For 52% of the electorate, the decision to leave the European Union meant a demand for national sovereignty, independence and immigration control as much as it meant abandoning the economic model of the European Union; Thus any profits are advantages and not a basis for thinking.
As Monshaw and others argue, one of the fundamental problems over the past five years has been that many Brexit predictions have always been based on unstable assumptions. In fact, these were the predictions of anti-Brexit economists who put policy before objectivity, or who pointed to economic models that almost exclusively consider long-term trade and ignore other areas of growth, such as information technology, a fast-growing sector in which they excel. United kingdom.
In short, when future historians assess the contribution of economists to the Brexit debate, their judgment will be difficult, and by the time they write, the real impact of Brexit in Europe will already be there for all to see.