Tokyo Olympics, economic failure فشل

The Tokyo 2020 Olympics are on the starting line, even if the sword of Damocles continues to cancel at the last minute hanging on the first edition without an audience. A survey by the Asahi newspaper, published a few days ago, revealed that two-thirds of Japanese are skeptical about the country’s ability to host the event in complete safety: injuries in the Olympic Village continue to increase and sponsors are already starting to distance themselves. .

First of all, Toyota who decided to withdraw promotional spots for fear of negative repercussions from a media point of view: the leaders will not participate in the opening ceremony, and this decision is followed by executives of other companies such as Nippon Telephone & Telegraph and Fujitsu. The shift of sponsors is just the latest problem with an Olympics version that risks being remembered as one of the most expensive games in history: Currently, official estimates speak of total investment of more than $15 billion, more than double the 7.5 budgeted at the start of the process. The one-year postponement set for spring 2020 due to the pandemic has already cost the organizing committee $2.8 billion to renegotiate contracts with sponsors; We must add to these another billion to implement the Covid protocols. However, according to Reuters, the cancellation would have entailed additional costs of between two and three billion dollars in any case. Then there is the topic of tickets: according to what is known, before the decision to refuse to the public, about 4.38 million have already been sold for a total of 90 billion yen, that is, about 690 million euros, which will be returned. It is clear that the negative impact of the lack of arrival of tourists and visitors from all over the world must be accounted for.

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However, canceling the Games entirely would mean, according to calculations by Nomura Research Institute economist Takahid Kiyoshi reported by Bloomberg, a massive economic loss of 1.8 trillion yen (about $16.4 billion), which could cause a series of worse consequences for the entire economy. Japan, resulting in lower investment and consumer spending. Even more disastrous is the scenario hypothesised by Yuki Masujima of Bloomberg Economics, which states that canceling the Olympics due to the coronavirus outbreak could have a 1.7 percentage point impact on Japan’s GDP. For Kiyoshi, on the other hand, if the games turn into a “super-spread event,” resulting in a massive increase in casualties, it could do more serious damage to the economy than a complete cancellation. Obviously, the opposite is also true: For experts, a successful Olympic Games can have positive effects, both for increased revenue and spending and for a nation’s morale.

More than 3 billion people will still be watching the Olympics without an audience: Comcast paid $4.4 billion in rights to broadcast the games from 2014 to 2020 in the US via NBC, even a few weeks before the broadcaster did. The plans have not changed. Network leaders point to the fact that a one-year postponement can ensure that spectators are watching the games with greater interest. However, it is not yet known what would happen in the event of further postponements or cancellation of the Japanese Olympic Games: in March 2020, NBC announced that it had sold advertising for a record amount of $1.25 billion. In Europe, the races will be broadcast by Discovery, also through the new streaming service, Discovery+: both networks have made it clear that they are still locked in.

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Another big issue concerns insurance companies, already hit by the pandemic and which, according to Bloomberg, will cost $2-3 billion to cancel the Olympics. The estimate includes nearly 800 million from the policy approved by the Olympic Committee for the possibility of cancellation, as well as additional coverage and other policies for television networks, professional teams, sponsors and hotels. Charles Graham, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, explained that if the Games were not held, it would be “the biggest loss associated with a single event” and, according to him, companies in the sector are able to absorb the blow. “To give an idea, in 2020, the two largest reinsurers in the world — Munich Re and Swiss Re — alone incurred $2.7 billion in losses due to the cancellation of already scheduled events.”

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