This is how UK polls go: Labor’s edge over the Conservatives is biggest in 25 years | Newsletter Kiko Llaneras

Welcome! Today I take a look at what polls are saying in the UK after the latest government crisis.

It has only been six years since Brexit, but since then the British have had five prime ministers, all Conservatives: David Cameron, who resigned after the referendum; Theresa May (who ruled for three years), Boris Johnson (two years), Liz Truss (six weeks) Newly appointed Rishi Sunak.

These were turbulent times in the country, and will remain so if we pay attention to the polls. Look at the graph of the evolution of opinion polls throughout 2022:

  • Conservative support has collapsed. If they won the 2019 elections with 43.6% of the vote, they now fall short of 23% in the polls. The Conservatives have been behind Labor since 2021, and took a first step back in June with Johnson’s resignation, but their disaster came in September, with Gears already in place, after announcing a tax cut that was not well received by markets. .
  • At the same time, the Labor Party rose to 52%. This means that the crisis on the right has translated not into a major rise of liberals or reform – the old Brexit Party – but for the left.

Conservative voters are clearly upset: According to YouGov dataOf the people who voted for the party in 2019 and who now declare some intent to vote, only 53% chose the Conservatives again. It’s poor loyalty. 13% would vote for reform and up to 22% say they would vote for Labour.

All of these numbers bode well for the Labor Party, but there is a reason for them to be cautious: recent history.

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In 2019, the Conservatives are back with worse polls than now. You can see it in the following chart. In June of that year, the Conservative Party fell to 22% in opinion polls, after May’s resignation and in the middle of the Brexit negotiations, when four parties looked practically level. However, only six months later Boris Johnson won the Conservative elections.

Although the UK has been on a slide since 2015, the Conservatives can say that in the upcoming elections they have always managed to climb, and ended up winning in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Now it is. It is the main modernity. The Conservatives’ recent crises have coincided with the uprisings of the Liberals, UKIP or the Brexit Party, but this time the left has taken a leap forward.

These days Labor has topped 50% of the vote in opinion polls, something they haven’t done since Tony Blair, the last Labor party to win an election in the UK, 17 years ago.

🏔 2. We have to rewrite the history of the fourteen “eight thousand.”

44 people were supposed to climb the highest mountains on the planet, but a recent study revealed it In fact, only three peaks have been made to all the peaks. As Oskar Gogorza tells, the rest made a mistake with some peak: the mountaineers really thought they were at the top of the mountain, they filmed themselves and went down, but they were not where they thought they were.

View of the last edge of Manaslu. Climbers assembled cannot see the real peak, in the background, which can be seen in this photo taken by a drone

The researchers behind the new study meticulously reviewed the images to verify each ascent. They found many errors. Most were wrong about Manaslu, whose actual summit was hidden from view. Spaniard Alberto Iñorategi is one of those who hasn’t made it to that summit, but he is neat: “I remember we followed the hills and it came down at one point and there was no higher point to be seen. We were convinced that this was the top, but after seeing the study it seemed that it wasn’t , it is clear that we were wrong.

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It’s fun to ask if this matters: what’s the difference if someone stays 10 meters from the ceiling? The challenge is equally formidable and feasible. But reaching these peaks has only a symbolic value and symbols do not understand logic.

By the way, the review can reopen the race for a milestone. “No woman has actually reached the 14 summits, and the challenge is still open.”

🌍 3. Opinions in a geopolitical year

Some data caught my attention. This study was carried out by the BBVA Foundationa survey of 21,000 people from 10 countries, on geopolitical issues in one geopolitical year.

  • Spaniards who believe that NATO is very or very important to Spain’s security rose from 65% to 77% in 2022. In countries less extensive in the Atlantic, the rise is greater: in France the group rises from 52% to 72%% and in Sweden from 56% to 70%.
  • Should the United States interfere in Europe’s security? Those who say they have to do it more or less often rise in Spain from 60% to 71%, in France from 55% to 60% and in Sweden from 45% to 72% (!). The only ones in doubt now are Americans: they go from 70% to 67%.

📆 4. Invitation: See you in the country?

We organize in the newspaper some exclusive interviews between journalists and subscribers of EL PAÍS, all of whom are in this newsletter, and I was asked to act the next day.

  • It’s Thursday, November 10, and the plan is simple: they offer to write and then we’ll chat for a while. We can talk about the press, aboutThink clearly“And what you want.
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I feel very proud and hope it will be fun for everyone. If you feel like it, Register here to get a place.

Are you helping me? Resend this newsletter, or if you are not a subscriber, I signed up. It’s an exclusive newsletter for EL PAÍS subscribers, but anyone can get it for a one-month trial. You can also follow me on Twitter, at Tweet embedor write to me with hints or comments, at [email protected].

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