The political crisis in Pakistan is deep and although it revolves a lot around the character of Prime Minister Khan, its consequences can affect dynamics such as those in Afghanistan, India, China and relations with the United States.
Pakistan’s Parliament voted to no confidence in the Prime Minister Imran Kham. The situation is very sensitive due to fears of demonstrations, including violent ones, by its supporters.
The Supreme Court of Pakistan has declared unconstitutional the initiative by which the Prime Minister (through the President) attempted to dissolve Parliament and call new elections, and ordered a vote on the motion in today’s Parliament session, Saturday 9 April. against Khan himself. The motion was already presented in Parliament last weekend, but the vote was blocked by the assembly’s vice president, Qasim Syrianfrom the same party as Khan (Pakistani Justice Movement, nationalist and populist).
The Pakistani government has been in a precarious situation for weeks. The opposition accused him of being responsible for strong inflation Which put the economy in trouble, through the increase in The unemploymentand not solve a problem corruption endemic to the country. Among the evils that Khan faced as a candidate when he won the 2018 elections, and in the face of the poor results of his political work, resignation requests were submitted, which does not bother the military world. The generals are playing an important role in Pakistan, and gradually losing confidence from the world of the armed forces, it support it oncewill be one of the reasons for Khan’s entry into the crisis.
The prime minister has already asked his supporters – before the vote, aware of the outcome – to take to the streets to demonstrate, creating chaos and potential chaos. News arrives from Islamabad that security structures have been put on alert after the spread of mistrust. What happens is closely tied to Khan’s character, it was a bit of a referendum on him (a former cricket champ who graduated from Oxford and rose on the wave of populism in the political scene), but the consequences of what it could bring with him is the instability in Pakistan – which is worth remembering – a strength Nuclear – wide-ranging and could have direct implications for four files: Afghanistan, the United States, India and China. Let’s see them in order.
Over the years, the Pakistani intelligence has built contacts and relationships between the world (articulated and divided) of the Taliban. These relations have lost their flesh in the last period, even if Khan is much less critical than other world leaders about the lack of respect for the human rights of the jihadist organization leading the Afghan regime. The Pakistani armed forces demand more from the Taliban in security matters, that is, they want Mullah Omar’s heirs to act as a buffer between the armed groups attacking Islamabad and Punjab: the Islamic State in Khorasan and other extremists. Formations that also use Afghanistan as a logistics background. It can be expected that (with or without) Khan these will remain Pakistan’s strategic priorities.
Khan described China as the global alternative to the Western model in line with what Beijing intends to represent. At the same time, the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which links the two countries, was conceptualized and launched under the two opposition political parties, who wanted to remove Khan from power. opposition leader Possible successor at the head of the government, Shahbaz SharifShe struck deals directly with China as the leader of eastern Punjab province, and her reputation for launching massive infrastructure projects and avoiding political ostentation could be well received in Beijing. From this point of view, Khan is not essential to the continuation of Chinese strategic interests.
Thanks to this alignment with China, and as a result of three wars fought since 1947, relations between India and Pakistan are currently at a bare minimum. The dynamics, as in the case of Afghanistan, are mainly managed by the army and intelligence sector, and the general Moon Javed BajwaAlready, the powerful commander of Pakistan’s armed forces has stated that his country is ready to “move forward” on Kashmir (a region that has been the subject of vitriolic rhetoric with New Delhi for years) if India agrees. Sharif’s political dynasty has been at the fore in many openings towards India over the years, which is also why he is considered a potential successor to Khan, who raised the bar for direct confrontation with India instead. Nirendra Modi accusing him of marginalizing Christian Muslim minorities – a Pakistani attempt to ride the local Islamist consensus.
Admittedly, the political crisis in Islamabad is not a priority for the Biden administration, Pakistan’s importance in the series of balances in the Indo-Pacific and Central Asian oceans makes the situation impossible for Washington to ignore. It is important for the United States for maintenance Connecting with the role of the military, which has some form of behind-the-scenes control of the country, and which recently appears to be moving to stress the importance of relations with the Americans to them (and thus to Pakistan). Javed Bajwa He explained to be on this line. Khan’s visit to Moscow in days in which Vladimir Putin Launching the attack on Kyiv was a disaster in terms of relations with the United States, and a new government in Islamabad could at least help repair relations. The Prime Minister blamed the United States for the current political crisis, say Washington wants to impeach him because of his recent trip to Moscow.
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