Good morning, and welcome to our renewed coverage of the global economy, financial markets, the eurozone, and business.
Markets love certainty. But that affection fades when the four-week lockdown is sure to derail parts of the English economy in the run up to Christmas.
Retailers, hospitality companies and travel companies are reeling after Boris Johnson ordered English restaurants, bars, entertainment facilities and non-essential stores to close on Thursday. Customers will not be allowed to return until December 2nd (and possibly later).
This will leave Britain FTSE 100 Index The leading corporate index is struggling to recover from a seven-month low struck last week.
Paul Dales, UK chief economist at Capital Economics, He warned that the UK economy could contract by 5% in November
The economy is likely to show zero growth or even decline slightly in the last quarter of the year.
This bears all the signs of a double dip. “
This new lockdown could potentially be disastrous news for struggling English retailers and food and drink outlets who have been limping through the pandemic.
Like Lady Caroline FairbairnAnd the CBI General Director:
“The closure is a decision of the government, not of companies, and companies share the prime minister’s ambition to defeat the virus, but for many companies, the second national shutdown marks the beginning of the middle of a bleak winter.”
Helen Dickinson From British Retail Consortium And he explicitly warned that the new measures would lead to “untold damage to the main street in the lead up to Christmas.”
“With the right support companies in place they will do everything they can to minimize the damage. Across the country they have already shown how resilient they are in the face of tougher restrictions. Thanks to the massive efforts by companies to make Covid workplaces safe, the economy can now remain open.” .
The lockdown will also leave more families anxious about unemployment in the run-up to Christmas, although the holiday scheme will be revived for another month (too late for those already out this fall).
If uncertainty is your taste, try the race to the White House. Tomorrow’s US election day, but investors fear we will not see a clear victory within 48 hours.
A recount and disputed results appear more likely, especially with speculation that Donald Trump may try to claim the winner’s rosette while the votes are still being counted.
This is the “red mirage” scenario, which would fizzle out if Joe Biden conquers key states, justifying polls that gave him a healthy lead.
The primary concern for Wall Street is whether the next president can agree on a massive new spending package with Congress, as analyst Alister Winter points out:
American investors certainly expect Biden to win but he can handle Trump’s second term and their main interest is the inevitable amount of fiscal stimulus (which will be determined by the party that controls the Senate).
On the economic front, the latest purchasing managers’ surveys are expected to confirm that UK factory growth slowed last month, but accelerated in the US and the Eurozone.
That October data could be very historic soon, though, if European lockdowns lead to a double-dip recession …
schedule of work
- 9 am GMT: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for October
- 9.30 am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI for October
- 2.35 pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI for October