Why this area can seal Trump’s fate in 2020

Since 1972, every GOP candidate elected president has won a suburban vote, according to exit polls, These are Richard Nixon 1972, Ronald Reagan 1980 and 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, and, yes, Donald Trump in 2016 (Trump beat Hillary Clinton 49% to 45% among suburban voters.)

(Sidebar: Mitt Romney in 2012 was the only Republican presidential candidate to win a suburban vote – 50% to 48% over Barack Obama – and lose the election).

That correlation should apply deeply not only to Trump but to any Republican currently voting.

Why? Since the revolt against Trump in the suburbs, which was at the heart of the Democrats on the re-assignment of a majority of Parliament in the semesters, does not seem to show signs of slowing down.

David Wasserman tweeted, editor of the House in Cook Cook Policy magazine, non-partisan campaign tips:

“What really should scare Rs: Trump is following Biden by 7-9% more than he lost his popular vote in 2016, but because there are so many urban cores where Trump could fall for the first time, the decline is probably even bigger in swinging suburbs. “

What Wasserman means – in layman’s terms – is this: Trump is behind Joe Biden, somewhere around 10 to 12 points in most national polls. Which is a lot more than the 3 points he lost in the popular Hillary Clinton vote – even as he won in 2016 at Elementary College (and the White House).

And because Trump did all this while swimming in urban areas – Clinton beat him there by 26 points in 2016 – Wasserman’s claim (and is he right) is that a further decline in Trump’s stance in the general ballots against Biden is almost certain the result of losses in suburban areas.

See also  News: Armin Laschet, Markus Söder, Coronavirus, USA, Delta Variant

Trump’s collapse in the suburbs – losing them by 5 or more points – not only would the White House almost certainly cost him. It would also put a bad threat to any Republican in a suburban suburb or Senate seat in a state with a large suburban population.

Full stop: Lose the suburbs and Trump loses the election. It’s that simple.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *