U.S. elections 2020 week ahead: a moment of “panic keys” for Senate Republicans

5. 48-ish days to VP:

Former Vice President Joe Biden said he would like to pick up his racing colleague by August 1 – which isn’t that long now!

(Here’s my latest look at 10 women who will most likely end up as Biden’s chosen one.)

Biden himself pulled back a little from his earlier armchair about armchairs about who was thinking and who wasn’t.

While she still occasionally offers praise to most of the aforementioned candidates – and his campaign holds virtual fundraising with politicians like New Mexico’s government Michelle Lujan Grisham – the former vice president is resisting a major political handicap these days.

Which means things are getting more serious.

4. How do Democrats dance around “Defund Police”?

What Democrats in Congress want to spend this week discussing a package of laws they introduced last week aimed at reforming the police – from banning government conflicts to building a national database on police negligence.

What you might need to tackle – for the second week in a row, calls are under way by some Black Lives Mate activists to give up the police altogether and allocate those funds to support marginalized communities.
Which is a very fulfilling position politically. ABC News-Ipsos poll released Friday showed two-thirds of Americans oppose police defense. But nearly 6 out of 10 (57%) blacks support such a measure for Americans – and redirect that money to more community-based programs.
Wanting to cross the debate on “police defundation,” CNN was told on Sunday by the top African-American congressional official, the majority African-American congressional official.

“No one is going to define the police. We can restructure the police force. Restructure, imagine the police. We will do that. The fact is that the police have a role to play.”

Which, politically speaking, is the right place for it. Many people support law enforcement reform. A much smaller back completely defends it.

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The question before the Congressional Democrats is whether Clyburn’s stance on Sunday is enough for their party’s activist wing.

3. Trump and ramp:

On Saturday, President Donald Trump held an introductory address at West Point. And as he was leaving the stage, the cameras caught him walking cautiously down the ramp toward the ground.

Twitter went bananas, suggesting Trump looks old and fragile. Which, of course, is what Twitter does.

But then Trump decided to drastically boost the profile of the moment – and make it a MORE bigger story.

“The ramp I went down after speaking from West Point was very long and steep, had no handrails and, most importantly, was very slippery.” Trump tweeted Saturday night, “The last thing I wanted to do was ‘fall’ to keep the Fake News entertained. The final ten meters I went down to ground level. Momentum!”

It’s hard to overestimate Trump’s miscalculations here. Without his tweet, the video of him walking down the ramp might be a small Sunday story. With a tweet, it’s a BIG story on Sunday, with the potential to penetrate the week that the president wants to be focused on relaunching his re-election campaign.

Well, why did he do that? Because he is simply not able to be publicly presented as weak or anything less than full command at all times. So even if he intensifies the criticism, Trump feels like he has to react to it. (Read this about Trump’s distorted definition of toughness.)

It is a catastrophic political instinct.

2. Restarting the Trump campaign:

It has been disastrous the last few weeks for Trump and his party. (See below). The president hopes that everything will change this week, and everything points to Saturday’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

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Although it has already been discovered (The rally was originally scheduled for Friday, June 19, known as June 19, the day that celebrates the end of slavery) Trump and his closest allies see a return to the campaign trail as perhaps something that can heal what damages the president’s political wealth.

Trump, the ever deceived man, he posted on Twitter on Friday that “we already have ticket requests exceeding 200,000 people. I’m looking forward to seeing everyone in Oklahoma!”
There is no doubt that Trump is driving the energy of the crowd and that a crowd of people will be present on Saturday night. (No, there won’t be 200,000 people; the arena where the event takes place has the capacity just over 19,000.)

But with the rise of the coronavirus – especially in the west and southwest – the news is likely to focus, at least in part, on weekly news that Trump will be holding a big rally at all.

Participants are already being asked to sign a waiver acknowledging that they will contract Covid-19 at the rally. Tulse’s health director said that on Saturday he wants Trump to postpone the rally out of concern for “our ability to protect anyone attending a large, closed event”.

However, there are no current plans to implement social distancing at rallies or mandate masks.

Well yes, Trump will probably get what he wants – a big crowd celebrating the “transition of the country to greatness”. But at what cost?

1. Press the panic button:

Late Saturday, the Des Moines Register released a poll on the Senate race in Iowa. And it was a shock.

Democrat Theresa Greenfield took 46% in the poll, 43% for Republican Iowa Ernast. As interviewer J. Ann Selzer stated, was the first poll since Ernst ran and won in 2014, which has shown her to follow the opponent of the general election.
While these numbers don’t suggest Ernst will lose – Republicans have only just begun attack / define Greenfield after her primary victory earlier this month – they made it clear that a race seen on the edge of a competitive look now looks like a real competition.

And that’s a t-r-o-u-b-l-e for Senate Republicans hoping to retain its narrow majority this fall.

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Why? Because there are a whole host of seats that independent handicaps consider the least vulnerable like Iowa.

Cook a political reportfor example, Iowa is considered a “leaning Republican,” along with both headquarters in the state of Georgia, Kansas, and Montana. And four more GOP seats – Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina – were ranked as the most vulnerable, meaning they are the most vulnerable.

Do the math: it’s nine places. In contrast, Cook rates only two Democratic cities – Alabama and Michigan – as competitive. And when you consider that Democrats only need to win three seats to get a majority if Biden wins the presidential race (and four if not), you can see why Republicans had very bad Saturday nights (and Sundays).

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