There is no politician at the inauguration of the new Iranian president: Italy, like other European countries, will only send the ambassador. Ricardo Alcaro, Iai Research Coordinator, identifies three reasons behind this choice. Here any of them

Before the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president Ibrahim RaisiOn the agenda next Thursday, Italy has decided to join the other European countries: it will send an exclusive diplomatic representation, as revealed yesterday in Formiche.net. A delegation less important even than a political delegation, in the presence of the then Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs Vincenzo Amendola, who participated in the 2017 event to inaugurate the second management of Hassan Rouhani.

position analysis with Formiche.netAnd Ricardo Alcaro, Research Coordinator and Head of the Global Actors Program at the Institute of International Affairs, identifies three sets of different factors.

The first relates to the general geopolitical situation. He explains that compared to 2017, Iran is “in a more dangerous situation.” Four years ago, “there was a government led by a pragmatic man like Rouhani, with his foreign minister.” Muhammad Javad Zarif, he had a clear message to open the Islamic Republic if not for cooperation, at least for dialogue and interaction with Western countries, especially European countries”, he continues. And confirms how to add to that “a blatant non-repressive trend at the internal level, although it had a limited scope of actions by the conservatives and the Revolutionary Guards of the Supreme Leader. Ali Khamenei.

The new president, Raisi, is an expression of that conservative wing. Alcaro continues that the 2015 nuclear deal showed “certain skepticism, justified by the Americans’ unilateral withdrawal and the many sanctions imposed, including those that are pending and new ones.” “For now, the Iranians are standing still a little: they no longer want to be in the same situation, and they are also led by a more skeptical administration.” Negotiations to resume the nuclear deal began in April under the Rouhani administration but have now stalled: “It is precisely in light of this change of administration, at this moment, that doubts are growing about returning to the implementation of the agreement.” Analyst Yay. “I suppose there is a tacit agreement at the European level and between the Europeans and the Americans not to rush too much: to first allow Iran to re-enter the nuclear deal, along with the United States of course, and then evaluate the forms of interaction at the end.”

The second factor, inevitably linked to the first, relates to the other dimensions of Iran’s regional policy. “While there is still some hope that the management of Raisi and the Supreme Leader will see it in their best interest to return to the agreement, there is great doubt, if not complete distrust, that the relationship is anything but a competitive one,” Alcaro continues. Which adds an element associated with a key figure, who “was responsible for the mass executions of political prisoners in the late 1980s, which has since formed one of the darkest pages of the Islamic Republic, and which has been the subject of great contention even within the Iranian leadership”: the Italians and Europeans’ account may be “There is no need to show the same inclination towards my boss as he was shown to Rouhani.”

The third and final element concerns the mentality of Italian diplomacy and politics. “They always see themselves as potential agents of mediation, able to build bridges between Western countries, especially the United States, and their main opponents such as Russia, China and Iran,” Alcaro comments, speaking of “a profession with a strategic sense.” But then, he continues, “they never go beyond words, never take initiatives that can actually distinguish them and strengthen the qualifications they want to bestow upon themselves.” Example? When the group of E3s – France, Germany and the UK – set up the Instex system to facilitate trade with Iran by circumventing US sanctions, “the Italians refused for reasons of prudence or a completely reluctant risk-taking mindset,” the expert recalls. “This contrasts slightly with the season in which the Obama administration ended, when the agreement was signed, but we still had to resolve ourselves amid the thousands of sanctions the Americans had kept in place: at that time, the Italian government was distinguished by its efforts to create an instrument that would To help Italian companies trade and invest with Iran.”

What is the situation today? “It’s not entirely hopeless,” Alcaro replies: “Both the United States and Iran would have an interest in returning to the agreement. He concludes that their terms for doing so are currently incompatible with each other.”

(Photo: Tasnim News Agency, Wikipedia)