“The obvious. These three stark words are the first in the new IPCC report. It is clear that the climate crisis is caused by human activity and is already affecting every corner of the earth, air and sea on the planet.
The report, which was prepared by hundreds of the world’s leading scientists with the approval of all governments around the world, concluded that if there was a slight chance of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2, 7 degrees Fahrenheit) to avoid falling immediately.
The scientific language of the report is cold and clear, but it does not mask the heat and havoc that global warming is causing. We have already caused a warming of 1°C (1.8°F) and are dangerously close to the 1.5°C danger limit agreed in the Paris climate agreement.
The accelerated melting of ice has dumped billions of tons of water into the oceans, where oxygen levels are dropping – choking the seas – The sour rises. The sea level has already risen by about eight inches and more is now being cooked irreversibly.
Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, destroying forests, and other human activities are now clearly destabilizing the temperate climate in which civilization began, the report said. The level of carbon dioxide in the air is now at its highest level in at least two million years.
When was the last time we saw such a rapid warming? At least 2,000 years ago and perhaps 100,000 years ago. These high temperatures? At least 6500 years old. Is sea level rising so fast? 3000 years at least. Too acidic oceans? Two million years.
All of this is already hurting people everywhere, the report says. According to the report, heat waves and torrential rains that led to flooding have become more intense and frequent since the 1950s, affecting more than 90 percent of areas around the world. Drought is getting worse in more than 90 percent of regions for which good data are available. The number of major tornadoes and tornadoes has likely increased by more than 66% since the 1970s.
But what about the future? Some warm-up exercises are already inevitable. According to the IPCC, we will definitely reach 1.5°C in the next two decades, regardless of what happens to emissions. The only good news is that keeping it at 1.5°C isn’t impossible yet.
For this, however, “immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions” in emissions are needed, say the scientists, of whom there are no indications yet. Even reducing emissions, but at a slower rate, results in 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and much greater suffering for all life on Earth.
If emissions do not decrease in the next two decades, 3°C (5.4°F) warming will likely be a disaster. And if they don’t fall at all, the report says, we’re on our way to 4 to 5 degrees Celsius (7.2 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit), the apocalypse zone.
The report is clear that there is no slope to the climate crisis. Every ton of carbon increases the effects and risks of extreme heat, floods and droughts, so every ton of carbon counts. The report says it will never be too late. Instead, the real question is how bad is it?
For example, extreme heat waves without global warming occur every ten years every 50 years. If the temperature rises by 1.5 ° C, then this will be the case approximately every 5 years; at 2 ° C every 3.5 years; And with 4C once every 15 months. More heating also means monsoon rains, on which billions of people depend for food, are more disruptive.
7 climate tipping points that could change the world forever
More emissions also mean the land and oceans are weakening to absorb this carbon pollution, making heating worse. With immediate and rapid reduction, nature can still absorb 70 percent of our emissions. Without discounts, that’s only 40 percent.
One of the simpler sections of the report begins: “Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries, if not thousands of years. This particularly affects the world’s oceans and ice, which absorb 96% of global warming, which means That the ice would continue to melt and the oceans would rise toward our many overcrowded coastal cities.
The likely range at the turn of the century is about 3 to 40 inches, or up to 3.3 feet. But by then, it could rise more than 6.5 feet or more than 16 feet by 2150, the report warns. Extreme sea-level events such as coastal flooding, which in the recent past occurred only once every century, are expected to occur in 60% of sites at least once a year by 2100.
“The road may seem far-fetched, but millions of babies are born and expected to be around 22 years old.
The many scientific developments that have occurred since the last full report of the IPCC in 2013 mean better forecasts for certain regions of the world. He can’t find a safe place. For example, in Europe, North America, most parts of Africa and Asia, heavy rains and floods are expected even with a 1.5°C rise in temperature.
“We can no longer assume that citizens of wealthier and safer countries such as Canada, Germany, Japan and the United States can quickly overcome the worst excesses of a destabilizing climate,” said Kathryn Hayhoe, senior researcher at Der Natureschutz. . “It is clear that we are all in the same boat, facing a challenge that will affect all of us in the course of our lives.”
This report is the sixth but it is the first report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for a comprehensive assessment of tipping point risks. These are sudden and irreversible changes in critical Earth systems, have enormous impacts, and are increasingly important to scientists. the The collapse of the Great Currents in the Atlantic OceanAnd polar caps, or the Amazon jungle The report warns that it “cannot be ruled out”.
“For the tipping points, it’s clear that every extra ton of carbon dioxide emitted today will push us into a minefield of feedback effects tomorrow,” says Dave Reay, professor of carbon management and education at the University of Edinburgh in Scotland.
So what can we do? The final section of the IPCC report discusses how to contain future climate change. He points out that 2.400 billion tons (26.5 billion tons) of carbon dioxide have been emitted by the human race since 1850 and that we can only leak another 400 billion tons (441 billion tons) for a 66% chance at 1 to stay 5°C.
In other words, we’ve already blown away 86% of our carbon budget, even though the report says the science is clear that if emissions are reduced in a decade or two, temperatures will stop rising and extreme deaths will be very limited.
“If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced quickly and on a large scale, limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is a long way off,” said Abdullah Mugait, Secretary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“But we don’t dictate politics to any country – it’s up to governments to make the decisions.”
Scientists have now spoken louder and clearer than ever. It is now up to politics to work.
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