In 2020, hardly anyone expected it pandemic, as we noted here when discussing black swans and gray rhinos. In 2021, who would have expected success NFT? Or just that a container ship was blocking the Suez Canal for days of birth Millionaire losses In all the stock exchanges of the world? As we well know, the crystal ball that can predict the future does not exist. We can estimate the probability of at most some events occurring. The margin of error is very large.
In this graph published two years ago in Optical Capital Some of the indicators that have emerged statistically more robustly are summarized in an assertive manner. We are on the side of the pendulum: the graphic choice of using bingo cards reduces the importance of the question of the difference between This is the prediction calculating or estimating future events; And sredition which is instead The act of declaring or referring to something beforehand. Here we find 25 predictions for 2022 compiled after consulting at least 300 articles, research papers and expert interviews about what will happen this year.
The most reliable is Economic ForecastsAnd because it’s based on surveys like those by the International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and in any case the institutes that estimate each year the trend of key macroeconomic indicators. Putting these reports together, it is clear that the global economy will likely continue to grow, but not at the rate of 2021. Inflation that came back terrifying in 2021 will remain a problem for this year as well. And that there will be some form of monetary tightening over the next 12 months.
As for the Foreign Policy Tensions are expected between the United States and Iran, in Ukraine, and between China and Taiwan. As well as within China.
Then there is the chapter workIn the United States, already last summer, the “big name” phenomenon was discussed. resignation4.3 million workers left their jobs in August. According to The Economist, 2022 will be the year of the worker, meaning that according to the British magazine, negotiating power will grow but at the same time it will also change the role of work in our lives. A trial period opens for digital creators thanks to a focus on Nft (non-replaceable token) in Art & Games.
at the endThe big names in technology will get bigger and bigger. Even here, however, the forecast should take into account the activity of the national regulator trying to normalize the power of large digital platforms, especially in Europe.
As for cyber security, things will only get worse. But even in that it is more of an expectation than an exercise in common sense.
Another real question: Why would we risk this stylistic exercise at the beginning of the year?. We know that humans fear uncertainty, and expectations serve this purpose to make them safer. And after what happened to us in the last couple of years, we are sure we are not really sure even in the face of unexpected but predictable events like the pandemic situation.
Why do we pay attention to predictions?
to know more.
(Wrong) predictions for 2020 in a graph. People fear uncertainty
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