Donald Trump is historically strong with his base and that is his problem

Both polls show that Trump significantly led self-determined Republicans: 93% to Biden’s 5% (Monmouth) and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).

What is the point: Trump has made the game clear about satisfying the Republican base during his presidency, and a poll shows that this effort is clearly worth it. His base does not leave him, even if his total number is weak.

Trump’s problem is that he used that support tank quite a bit.

Look at the election of Trump and Biden upside down
After making a great effort If he wins the result in the Premier League, basically without competition, Trump has won just under 95% of the Republican primary vote. This is very similar to the election for the general election, which put him at less than 95% of the Republican vote. It will be hard for him to do much more than that.
Indeed, Trump currently has more support among Republican voters than any Republican since at least 2000. You can see that in ABC News / Washington Post poll, That, like Monmouth’s and the NBC / Wall Street Journal, has Trump at almost 95% (94%), while Biden retains only 4%.

As of 2000, no Republican had ever supported more than 91% of Republicans in the ABC News / Washington Post polls. The average Republican had 84% of Republicans behind him. A strategy based on the first election in that election made much more sense than that during the Trump era.

(The historical nature of these numbers holds true if we include independents who rely on Republicans.)

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Maybe Trump believes he shouldn’t change his strategies because he ignored the advice of most people and still won in 2016. That’s a mistake. Except for the fact that there is good evidence that Trump is ran out as more moderate than his government, Trump had much more room to grow with the base in 2016. He scored just 74% of the Republicans only identified in the ABC News / Washington poll, recorded right around this point – the lowest of any Republican since 2000.

Where Trump is weak he is outside the Republican base. In the ABC / Washington Post (figures similar to Monmouth and NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump is at 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both are currently lower than any Republican in the 2000 ABC News / Washington Post polls.

In other words, there is much more potential support for Trump outside the underlying Republican base. Trump, however, does not seem interested in making the effort.

If Trump doesn’t change things, he will find that the other side’s base is bigger than his. Biden wins more Democrats in average polls (including poll) NPR / PBS News Survey / Marist College Survey) this week (94%) of Trump beats Republicans (92%). The average poll, as is true almost every year, measured more Democrats than Republicans in this country.

Continuing his basic strategy, Trump ensures he won’t see the bottom fall out. The discovery, however, that actually accumulating the coalition needed to win will be extremely difficult.

This story was updated to include the results of a survey by the NBC News / Wall Street Journal published on Sunday.

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