According to the World Weather Organization (WMO) forecast, this or one of the next four years could break the global average temperature record. The likelihood of this is 90 percent, according to the United Nations in Geneva, citing analyzes by the British Met Office.
The previous record was reached in 2016. At that time, the average surface temperature of the Earth was about 1.2 degrees above average from 1850 to 1900. The 2019 and 2020 cents were practically identical. The ten years from 2011 to 2020 were the warmest decade.
Indeed, one of the five years from 2021 to 2025 could reach 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level. The probability of this is 40 percent currently. Accordingly, the probability that the value will not be attained at the present time is slightly greater than that of its realization. But the danger is growing.
According to the Paris climate agreement, the international community is in fact aiming to increase a maximum of 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.
More severe weather conditions, greater ice melt
The consequences of overheating vary from region to region. According to the new WMO projections, this year will be drier in southwestern North America than the average years from 1981 to 2010, while Australia and the Sahel sub-Saharan Africa will be wetter.
From 2021 to 2025, the weather will be much warmer in all regions – except for parts of the Southern Oceans and the North Atlantic – than the average years from 1981 to 2010, according to predictions. There are likely to be more tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
“These are not just statistics,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Rising temperatures mean more melting ice, rising sea levels, more heat waves and other extreme weather conditions, as well as negative consequences for food security, health, the environment and sustainable development.” He called on all countries to curb the harmful global warming. Gases are faster than planned.