Economic recovery: Europe H United State They don’t continue at the same pace.
According to some analysts and observers, in fact, the The USA in Biden Moving toward a generous fiscal stimulus package to speed up the post-crisis recovery, and a lot ofEurope It is moving in slow motion.
Most experts expect the US economy to reach pre-pandemic size in mid-2021, roughly a year before the European currency is frozen.
In the race for growth, has Europe really lost to the power of the United States? Estimates and views.
Europe loses in recovery: The United States is ahead
As I mentioned Bloomberg, According to UniCredit, the stimulus bill from $ 1.9 trillion By President Joe Biden, if congressional leaders approve the full amount, it will increase his administration’s spending in 2021 to more than three times what the United States has planned.Euro-zone.
JP Morgan estimates that “fiscal consolidation” will add 1.8% to US production this year. For the Eurozone, 0.1% will be subtracted.
Now, Europe’s slowing down is partly due to its rather cumbersome structure. The sovereign governments of the 27 European Union have established their own tax policies, and it took months of negotiations last year to agree on a common fund. 750 billion euros.
Proposals for how to spend the money are still being prepared, and the distribution of the funds may not begin until the second half of the year.
This careful study has its advantages. if it was Recovery fund Well spent, the European Union will have a well-structured portfolio of projects that improve productivity and growth potential for years to come. But without credible reforms, the continent could be destroyed for a long time.
Not only that, Eric Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit, says the difference in spending plans compared to the United States is “Amazing” And the eurozone approach is inadequate: it will lead to one Recover Moderate one The unemployment Longer, deep and economic scars Inflation Weak.
Moreover, according to the bank’s strategy, it must be considered Output gap. This indicator of untapped economic potential is difficult to accurately measure, but it is currently widely considered in the European Union to be greater than in the United States.
This means that Europe must do more, not less, to revive its economy. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the production gap in the United States was 3,2% Of GDP in 2020 and 5.1% In the eurozone.