A series of momentum polls (and not so much momentum) by states released on Wednesday makes this reality clear.
How bad are those numbers for Trump? To put it nicely to an end: Really bad.
And now, let’s look at what those numbers would mean for Trump’s chances of reaching 270 in November.
* If Trump loses to Texas (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he does losing according to Biden, 270 electoral votes to 268 electoral votes.
* If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), losing at Biden 278 to 260.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), losing on Biden 279 to 259.
* If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he losing at Biden from 276 to 262.
* If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he losing on Biden 271 to 267.
The point here is not to say that any of these election map scenarios are locked. Finally, we are still 152 days away from the November 3 election. (And yes, I counted.)
Instead, they should note that Biden, so far, has a LOT of different paths to 270 electoral votes, while Trump has a dwindling number. And of course, polls released Wednesday don’t even address possible issues for Trump in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia – and he won it all in 2016.
For what’s worth, Trump’s best / most likely path to a second term would be to lose one or both Michigan and Pennsylvania and retain every other state he won in 2016. Had he lost both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he would have cast 270 to 268 electoral votes victory over Biden. If he loses only Pennsylvania, he would win by 286 electoral votes. Only Michigan loses, and Trump has 290 electoral votes and a second term.
“The country is as polarized as it was two months ago, and the trajectory of the competition is basically unchanged, with Biden having a pleasant lead at the national polling station and having multiple tracks up to 270 electoral votes.
“While the daily development of events provides cable television networks with something to talk about, we will replace tomorrow’s big story with a new one tomorrow, and a day later another. But the foundations of the race remain unchanged.”
That is quite true. As of today, Biden has had more ways than so far in the campaign to 270 electoral votes. And Trump has less.
Can that change? Of course! In the summer of 2016, the election ticket looked like Hillary Clinton would be rolling for victory over Trump. Hell, that’s what it looked like until the fall.
Elections are not today. Trump will run a well-funded – and probably vicious – campaign that seeks to portray Biden as outstanding in every issue – from immigration to China to the race. And as we have been reminded in recent months, events can and must intervene to change what we think we know about the November election.
It’s all true. None of this changes the fact that Trump is looking at an increasingly difficult electoral map today, slightly hinting that big changes are coming soon.