Trump’s election card is only getting worse

But as we learned in 2016 (and 2000!), The only thing that matters is the elective college.

Unfortunately for Trump, his chances of getting the 270 electoral votes he needs to win a second term seem, at least at this point, rather unclear.

Over the past week, two major political forecasters – Amy Walter of the Cook Cook Report and 538 Nate Silver – have released updated views on the election map. And the picture they paint for Trump is terrible.

“With just under five months until the election, President Trump is a serious supporter of re-election,” writes Walter, which gives 248 electoral votes firmly or in favor of Biden, and 204 firmly or in favor of Trump.

“To win an elective college, Biden would have to win only 26 percent of those states / Toss Up counties, while Trump should win more than 75 percent. In other words, Trump has little room for error, while Biden has a wider path to victory.”

Silver analysis is similar.

“Overall – assuming non-polled states follow the same path as in 2016, Biden leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states with a total of 170 electoral votes.” writes.
To be clear: Neither Walter nor Silver (nor I) say the election is over or that Trump cannot win. In fact, while Silver suggests that there is a possibility that Biden could win the “landslide” if all the current expulsion states join him, “it’s a victory for Trump’s Electoral College, depending on which path the race takes from now until November.

But what about them are saying that right now the electoral map is largely in Biden. Not only are the traditional democracies Trump defeated in 2016 like Michigan and Pennsylvania likely to return to the Democratic column in 2020, but former Republican strongholds like Arizona, North Carolina and maybe even Texas really seem to be playing for Biden.

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All of this gives the presumed Democratic candidate, as Walter rightly observes, more tracks to the 270 electoral votes that should have been his 46th president.

tracks makes they still exist for Trump – mostly by holding two of the three states of the rust belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) and keeping the status quo elsewhere on the map.

But there are far fewer paths for Trump than for Biden. And with each week of delay, the number of good options on Trump’s election map is only declining.

Full stop: The best news for Trump is that Election Day is still a long way off. If the elections were held today, he would lose convincingly – in the popular vote and at the election school.

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