(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group cut its forecast for US growth this year and next, attributing the decision to delaying the rebound in consumer spending. Goldman economists, led by Jan Hatzius, said in a report Sunday that they now expect growth of 5.6% annually in 2021, up from their previous estimate of 5.7%, and 4% next year, versus 4.4%. The declines were mostly offset by improvements in their forecasts for the next two years.
After updating our estimates of the key growth drivers driving our consumption outlook — reopening, fiscal stimulus, pent-up savings and effects on wealth — and incorporating a long-term impact from the virus on spending on virus-sensitive consumer services, the economists said, “We now expect a delayed recovery in spending.” consumer”.
That, they said, along with the assumption that semiconductor supply won’t improve until the second half of next year and that stock replenishment will be delayed, “calls for a recovery that is less advanced from here than we expected.”
In the end, they said, the two main challenges to growth over the medium term are the slowdown in fiscal support and the need to increase spending on services fast enough to offset lower purchases of goods.
Nota Original: Goldman lowers US growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 to the consumer
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