What can stop Donald Trump?

Former US President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted at his desire to run for the 2024 presidential election. Photo: Image Alliance / newscom / BONNIE CASH

Analytics

Anne Katherine Hamilton

Former US President Donald Trump returns to the stage. On Tuesday, he delivered a speech in front of the research institute “America First Policy Institute” (Agence France-Presse) held in Washington, DC. Among other things, the AFPI team develops strategies and concepts to put the American people first.

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America first – With this slogan, Trump had already reached the White House in 2016. Having had to give up his position to Joe Biden in 2021, he did so Trump has repeatedly hinted that he will run in the next presidential election.

For political scientist Johannes Thiem, Trump’s candidacy is still speculation, but his gut feeling says: Yes, Trump will run again. The American expert works as a political scientist at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin.

Watson asked you about the problems Trump would face in becoming president of the United States again.

Trump’s life and health

There is still a long way to go before the November 2024 elections. Trump will then be 78 years old. Thiem refers to Trump’s health in an interview with Watson. This could deter him from his candidacy. Age in itself is not a hindrance. There is no minimum age for candidates in presidential elections.

Capitol attack investigation

On January 6, 2021, radical Trump supporters stormed the Capitol – the heart of American democracy. A committee of the US House of Representatives (the counterpart of the German Bundestag) is currently investigating the events and Trump’s role in them. According to the commission, the former president planned and agreed to storm the Capitol.

“It damages Trump’s reputation.”

“These sessions number about 20 million People Continue to leave a negative impression on people. “It hurts Trump’s reputation,” Thiem says.

On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol, killing five people.

On January 6, 2021, Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol, killing five people. Photo: IMAGO / Pacific Press Agency / Michael Nigro

In his speech in Washington, D.C., Trump himself commented on the investigation:

“All this corrupt establishment is doing to me is maintaining its power and control over the American people. They want to hurt you in some way. They really want to hurt me so I can’t work with you anymore. And I don’t think that’s going to happen.”

The big question is whether the Department of Justice will take criminal action against Trump. “So far it has been said that the Department of Justice is investigating everyone and not stopping at the former president,” Thiem says. That could galvanize more Trump supporters. “The hard core of his supporters don’t believe in anything other than what Trump says. For them, he alone is telling the truth.”

On the other hand, potential criminal investigations against Trump also pose obstacles to him. Moderate Republicans in particular are considering whether Trump is still too good for the party.

Competition from within their own ranks

Before the Capitol Storm hearings, according to polls, Trump was the most popular Republican, Thiem explains. In the meantime, he lost his popularity – not only among the population, but also among his own ranks.

This increases the chances of his rivals from his party. “Ron DeSantis could be the most dangerous for Trump,” Thiem says. Trump himself has backed the governor of Florida and is now his biggest challenger. “DeSantis has adopted Trump’s style and policy, but he’s younger and less burdensome,” Thiem explains. Other potential candidates are Republicans Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz and former Vice President Mike Pence.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may become Trump's biggest challenger.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may become Trump’s biggest challenger.Photo: IMAGO / ZUMA Wire / Paul Hennessy

So Trump has to collect sympathy points again and persuade the masses to outperform his opponents.

Twitter, Fox News and Co. – It’s a matter of access

Previously, Trump used Twitter and made his tweets viral. Before him, no US president had used a social network as frequently and successfully as Trump – on me Twitter He has more than 88 million followers worldwide. But after the storming of the Capitol, it was over. Twitter banned Trump from the platform. “For Trump, who lives from attention, that’s a huge limitation,” Thiem says.

Trump then established his “Truth Social” social network, which does not replace Twitter, Thimm says. “He can use it to reach his followers, but only expand his reach to a limited extent.”

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He is a big media supporter that Trump can back down from Fox News American news channel. Thiem says the station is the greatest resource that Republicans have access to.

In particular, TV presenter Tucker Carlson, a famous news anchor and commentator, is a huge fan of Trump.

Fox News anchor and commentator Tucker Carlson is a big Trump supporter.

Fox News anchor and commentator Tucker Carlson is a big Trump supporter.Pictured: IMAGO / ZUMA Wire / Brian Cahn

In addition, Trump reaches the masses through his live events, where he gives speeches in full halls in various US states. Other methods, such as newsletters and donation appeals, also keep in touch with voters.

The three biggest obstacles

For Thiem, the three biggest obstacles to Trump’s path to the White House are clearly His health, potential criminal trials and competition from his partywhich is now showing mixed signals about Trump.

In his speech, Trump only once again expressed speculation about a possible start in the 2024 presidential election: “Maybe we should do it again.”

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