Towards GDP less than 1% / That’s why we’ll go back to zero growth

The Parliamentary Budget Office also revised upwards its 2022 GDP growth forecast, taking it from the 2.9% formulated in April to 3.2%. But, as the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund have already done, it simultaneously lowered the 2023 estimate from 2.1% to 0.9%. “Positive number for the second quarter Reported to us last week by Istat – he tells us Luigi CampiglioAnd the Professor of Economic Policy at the Catholic University of Milan Significantly restores GDP to pre-Covid levels. And the predictions for 2023, all of which are now less than 1%, actually correspond to those formulated before the pandemic, and are an expression of the country’s potential.”

Can you explain better what you mean?

Because our potential has shrunk in the last decade, the country has “shrunk”, so we can grow, but at low rates. To be clear, we can access the meager growth in the recent past. Moreover, the recovery levels of the past two years will not correspond to the current economic and political fundamentals. In this sense, it is hoped that next year we will have a stability that will allow the implementation of the NRP.

It must be said that lower growth is expected despite the foundations of the National Measurement Program, perhaps also due to the international context, the energy crisis, inflation, etc. In your opinion, at this point PNRR should be reviewed?

See also  Because now there is a risk of division

Perhaps in some places, yes also because some critical issues in the country are more pressing than others. We will certainly have a situation where we have to try to make the best use of the resources that Europe guarantees, and I think the best way to do that is to encourage public and private investment, because it means jobs and income.

Speaking of hiring, again Latest data from Istat They were positive…

If we mean the potentials of the country, as is true, those related to human resources and capabilities, and thus to the number of people of working age, then it must be said that this volume has entered a stage of decline. Above all because we don’t see 25-34 year olds as a strategy for the country’s growth. So we’re in a situation where the employment numbers are also improving because the pool of potential workers that can be tapped is shrinking. It’s as if we’ve gone from a large-displacement car to a less-displacement vehicle.

Does this limit the possibility of economic growth?

As I said earlier, this decline reduces the potential of the state, but this does not mean that it cannot grow if, for example, the main energy conversion work can be financed, which may bear fruit perhaps in the following year, but is indispensable to try to return, to use The metaphor above, to a larger offset.

First, however, there will be a final, somewhat crucial part of the year to contend with.

See also  MTA workers build an illegal "man cave" at the Grand Central Station; "Few will have Chutzpah" - CBS New York

In my opinion, winter fears have already been reflected in the significant decline in household and business confidence indicators for July. In particular, the “future climate” for consumers went from 98.8 to 92.9: I was expecting better. Thus, whoever wins the elections at the end of September will have a lot of work to do, because the critical issues to be addressed are not simple and, moreover, within Europe, our main partner, Germany, is in big trouble and this creates some problems. For us too.

Always looking at Europe, you think the European Central Bank, with its monetary policy maneuvers, can provoke recession Or at least encourage a slowdown in the economy?

The European Central Bank is actually handicapped by the Fed. However, the European situation is different from that of the United States, so I would suggest that Eurotower moves very cautiously, because there is a risk that the spreads will widen too much and this could remove resources from the public budget, from social spending, only when there are A need to strengthen policies that take care of the most vulnerable part of the country, which is above all the poorest. Moreover, as I said before, I think that the 25-34-year-old group is very important for the development of the country and the European Central Bank can do something for it.

What can you do?

For example, a subsidized mortgage policy can support home purchases by European citizens in this age group. This measure can be complemented by a national fiscal policy that values ​​this generation and thus helps send a positive signal to the markets about the desire to grow in a healthy way. After all, our country’s reach expands once our credibility is dissipated. Investing in the future, in growth, could strengthen it instead.

See also  "Yes to the entry of Western Balkan countries into the European Union"

(Lorenzo Torrisi)

– – – –

We need your input to continue providing you with independent, high-quality information.

support us Donate now by clicking here

© Reproduction reserved

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.