The two ways to target 2024

It looks almost silly but Donald Trump He may be about to announce his candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential election. Just as the current tenant of the White House is experiencing a moment of minimal popularity, the 76-year-old President of the United States appears ready to take on the challenge in a world that has become far more complex than the one he just left. More than 500. Day ago. Many in Washington swear that Trump’s descent into the field is already certain: only the date and details of the announcement will remain.

One of the most controversial figures of the past few decades has not actually left. Despite being kicked out of his beloved social media, in recent months he has held a series of public meetings in statesdeep america. Wherever he goes, from Illinois to Alabama, from Oklahoma to Alaska, he finds a way to send messages back to the front pages, from the recent spat with Elon Musk to the numerous attacks on Democrats. The response of the general public that follows him everywhere seems to prove that his hold on the Republican base remains very strong. Things are actually more complicated.

Ocean crowds are not the Republican norm, but they areTrump nation‘, that smoky frontier movement that has yet to absorb electoral defeat and seems to yearn for revenge that ‘puts things right.’ In the past few days, some polls, Like the one he commissioned The New York Times, showed a certain loss of consensus among Republican voters for the former president but we’re always about 50%, a mountain to climb for potential rivals. Self there CNBC He talks about the “escape” of wealthy Republican financiersTrump certainly has no problems from this point of view, fueled by small donations from his supporters.

However, not everyone within the Republican Party will see the ad favorably. many inside Beltway They were working behind the scenes to get him to at least wait for the midterm election result. With Democrats ready to abandon Biden and his chaotic administration to distance themselves from the economic crisis and the inflation nightmare, changing the subject would be an exciting goal. However, there are several reasons for or against what may be a decidedly unusual choice in America, where it is very rare for a candidate to apply so early.

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Because it would be better to wait

Announcing his field trip would force Trump to adhere to strict electoral rules on fundraising, which could cost him dearly. Currently, its related committees have collected record figures, $124 million in their most recent quarterly report, released in mid-April. Continuing for a few more months, the distance with Democrats, who hope an abortion will revive anemic fundraising, could already become out of reach. As if that weren’t enough, returning to the field of the previous first public sprint would be an unexpected breath of fresh air for the mainstream media, whose ratings have fallen to levels unimaginable just a few years ago.

Rather than announcing new layoffs, Trump’s effect will be a narrative shift that everyone, including Democrats, may view very favorably. Wait for file results mid-term You could then play for Trump. Despite a string of victories in the primaries, there are those who believe that the candidates he supports are too radical and unable to collect votes among the independents and the so-called.”Reagan DemocratsMany of them would be disgusted with the party’s progressive drift.

As of June 30, register Confirmations Trump is impressive 147 wins and only 11 defeatsbut some were painful, such as those in Georgia, swing condition for excellence. If the so-called “red wave” materializes in earnest in November, Trump will surely get the credit. At that point, confronting the “Kingmaker” could be politically dangerous for many Republicans.

Because it may be useful to run the application immediately

However, the reasons for the early descent into the field are not missing. According to Bill O’Reilly, former star of Fox News They are always close to Trump, and in his field there are those who fear that the consolidated media coverage of the Parliamentary Committee will be onAssault on the Capitol It is the first step towards filing a formal indictment. The discussion Among American legal experts, it is very lively and emphatically divided along partisan lines, but almost everyone seems to agree that building a strong case on such sensitive issues and without indisputable evidence would be a gigantic task.

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If the odds of success don’t seem very high, the political effects on Trump and the candidates he supports could still be devastating. Taking the square before Sept. 5 Labor Day, a holiday that traditionally signifies a return from the summer vacation to politics, would make it easier to pass the indictment as yet another attack by the “Deep State,” which they see Trump loyalists already see as how smoke in the the eyes.

Others say Trump himself will want to help the mainstream media, which he continues to call “fake news.” Enthusiastic about raising money like Trump is reluctant to spend it. As long as the media was strong, it didn’t need to invest billions in election commercials. CNNAnd the MSNBC And others did nothing but give it free advertising. Without their involuntary help, his victory in 2016 might have been impossible.

However, what ultimately makes the difference is the desire to free the playing field from potential internal opponents. The stone guest is definitely the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis. If Trump evokes strong feelings either for or against, the Italian American certainly has a more digestible profile for the average voter. A law graduate from Yale and Harvard, and a former military attorney at JAG, he has a near-perfect track record. Victories against Disney and unions, such as pandemic management and Florida’s economy, among the countries least affected by the crisis, have made it very popular among conservatives. DeSantis appears irreplaceable, but forcing him out in the middle of the campaign for reelection as governor would be an unscrupulous move as far as it goes with Trump’s character. The “dream card” is almost certainly an illusion, but moving forward could bring in other potential opponents, ensuring Trump a quieter primaries.

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Are we, then, close to returning to the realm of personality that has dominated, for better or for worse, for the past ten years? Few in the Republican Party had any doubts about Trump’s intention to run again. From his point of view, he has many accounts to be settled with the Washington “quagmire” that would have eliminated his “revolution”. In their congregations there is a loud voice against fraud, anger and hatred. Loyalists can’t wait to get back to the polls and their enthusiasm can make a difference. Perhaps, though, it will make Trump less willing to come down to him concessions Thus more difficult to digest for moderate voters. And it seems that the former president is determined to “fix things” in his own way, without half-measures.

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