BRUSSELS / BERLIN (Reuters) – In light of the ongoing pandemic, the European Union Commission is lowering its growth forecast for 2021.
The Commission in Brussels said on Thursday that following delays in vaccination campaigns in member states, the economic recovery could be delayed and the lockdown could be prolonged. And it expects the euro zone economy to contract in the current first quarter. It should then start in the spring and gain more momentum in the summer when vaccination campaigns begin.
In its winter forecasts now presented, the commission has lowered its estimates for 2021 and at the same time expects higher growth for 2022 than expected last fall. So this year there should be only 3.8 per cent increase in GDP in the eurozone. In November, the European Commission estimated an increase of 4.2 percent. The view for 2022 is more optimistic: Brussels now expects an increase of 3.8 percent, and in the fall it posts only a 3.0 percent increase on the list.
Regarding the development of the German economy, Brussels is somewhat more optimistic with GDP expected to increase by 3.2% for 2021 compared to the federal government, which expects an increase of 3.0%. According to the European Union Commission, the German economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2022. Growth in France is likely to be higher in 2022, as the commission expects a GDP increase of 4.4% after an estimated growth of 5.5% in the year. Present.
Brussels is more optimistic about Spain’s economy, which is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2021 and by 5.3 percent in 2022 after last year’s historic recession. Italy will also return to the growth path: After a decrease of 8.8 per cent in 2020, the Commission expects an increase of 3.4 per cent for 2021.