(Prudent Press Agency)---Second wave of swine flu to hit CAROLINE MARCUS
February 7, 2010

EXPERTS predict a second wave of swine flu will hit Australia as early as the end of this month.

Figures obtained by The Sun-Herald show that just one-fifth of NSW adults have been immunised against H1N1.

Robert Booy, an infectious disease expert at The Children’s Hospital at Westmead, said there was evidence a second wave was coming and it was possible that it could be worse than the first round last year.


He referred to the H1N1 pandemic in 1918, widely known as the Spanish flu. ‘‘That’s the last time we had one and that one was definitely worse the second round.’’

Professor Booy said children returning to school after going on holiday in the northern hemisphere could speed up the rate of infection.

Children are four times as likely to contract the virus and require admission to hospital, along with other high-risk sections of the population such as pregnant women, the elderly and people with chronic medical problems affecting the heart, liver and immune system, he said.

‘‘If as many people get immunised in February and March, for the first time in history we may see a second wave [of a pandemic] turn into a trickle,’’ Professor Booy said. ‘‘People should act in the next two months.’’
So far, there have been 191 deaths in Australia linked to swine flu.

The call for people to be immunised came as the federal government yesterday launched a new campaign calling on GPs to promote vaccination. ‘‘We must see more people vaccinated before the flu season arrives to ensure the community is fully protected,’’ Chief Medical Officer Jim Bishop said.

Australia could expect a second wave of flu as early as April if the local experience matches that of America and Canada, he said.

‘‘The return of children to school in the North American autumn was associated with a substantial increase in the number of cases of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza, an early start to the flu season and a higher influenza peak than usual,’’ Professor Bishop said.

The government has spent $120million on 21 million doses of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine. As of January 28, more than 6.6 million doses of the vaccine had been distributed as well as more than 241,000 pre-filled syringes for use in children under three.

But NSW Health figures show only about 20 per cent of adults in the state had been immunised.

Royal Australian College of Physicians president Dr Chris Mitchell said the take-up of the vaccine had been lower than anticipated.

‘‘In previous pandemics, the second wave is in fact far more serious,’’ Dr Mitchell said. ‘‘Obviously with the increased frequency of travelling, it’s much easier with the virus to move outside those traditional periods.’’

Australian Medical Association vice-president Dr Steve Hambleton said the start of the government’s vaccination program had not been ‘‘as comprehensive as it would need to be in a more lethal pandemic’’.

‘‘Because it’s been mild, we haven’t had queues of people at GPs lining up to get vaccinated,’’ Dr Hambleton said.
Liberal senator Julian McGauran accused the federal government of engaging in scaremongering.

‘‘The first wave was an exaggerated, scare-fuelled beat-up. The government have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on vaccinations that are just sitting wasted in storage areas as big as football fields and now they’re at it again.’


CASE FILE OF THE KILLER VIRUS

- 37,584 confirmed cases of H1N1 in Australia.

- 191 Australians have died from swine flu.

- Median age for casualties is 53, compared with 83 for seasonal flu.

- 4912 hospital admissions; 14 per cent admitted to intensive care.

- Indigenous Australians are 10 times more likely to be admitted to hospital; 13 per cent of people who died were indigenous.

- 7700 children under 10 had confirmed cases, with 15 per cent admitted to hospital.

- 21 million doses of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine were bought by the federal government.

- 6.6 million doses of the vaccine have been distributed across jurisdictions.

http://www.charlotteflu.com
http://www.charlotteflushots.com